A historian who’s accurately predicted nearly every election since 1984 has shared his take on Donald Trump vs Kamala Harris for the 2024 presidential election.
And given his track record, we should probably listen to him.
While we may still be a few months away from Americans heading to the polls in November, the 2024 election has been a topsy-turvy ride so far.
After many months of speculation, President Joe Biden announced earlier this month he would not be seeking re-election and dropped out of the presidential race, instead paving way for his vice-president Harris to go head-to-head with Trump.
Biden also offered his ‘full support and endorsement’ for Harris as his replacement.
Kamala Harris has Joe Biden’s endorsement. (Kenny Holston-Pool/Getty Images)
While Harris seems likely to be in top position to secure the Democrat nominee as 99 percent of delegates signed her nominating petition, NBC reports, the individual who will face Trump in November will be announced in August at the Democratic National Convention.
And polls are a good indication of how things could develop, however, Allan Lichtman has developed a formula guaranteed to predict who will win the overall presidency.
Lichtman himself correctly predicted Trump would enter the White House in 2016, while Joe Biden would come out victorious in 2020.
His ‘Keys to the White House’ formula consists of 13 true-or-false questions, where each question is asked about the two candidates; if ‘true’ they are given a ‘key’, and if ‘false’, the individual they are fighting to get into The Oval Office receives a point.
Donald Trump is aiming for a return to office. (Stephen Maturen/Getty Images)
So what are the ‘keys’? Well, they go as followed:
- party mandate
- contest
- incumbency
- third party
- short-term economy
- long-term economy
- policy change
- social unrest
- scandal
- foreign/military failure
- foreign/military success
- incumbent charisma
- challenger charisma
Lichtman’s prediction suggests the Democrats hold six of the 13 keys, with many feel the party are better on short-term economy, long-term economy, policy change and no scandal.
Meanwhile, Trump and the Republicans hold three keys – not seeking re-election, winning house majority in the 2022 midterms, and the current incumbent lacking charisma – with four keys still to be given out.
Keys yet to be decided to include having ‘no social unrest’ and ‘foreign military success and failure’.
If the Democrats lose three more keys, Lichtman hypothesises, then they would be predicted to lose to Trump in November.
With still three months to go till polling days and the Democrats yet to formally announce their candidate, a final prediction has not been made for the race to get into The White House.
However, Lichtman told News Nation that he believes ‘a lot would have to go wrong for Harris to lose’.
I suppose only time will tell.